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Zhang, H., W. Guo, and W. Wang. 2023. The dimensionality reductions of environmental variables have a significant effect on the performance of species distribution models. Ecology and Evolution 13. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10747

How to effectively obtain species‐related low‐dimensional data from massive environmental variables has become an urgent problem for species distribution models (SDMs). In this study, we will explore whether dimensionality reduction on environmental variables can improve the predictive performance of SDMs. We first used two linear (i.e., principal component analysis (PCA) and independent components analysis) and two nonlinear (i.e., kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) and uniform manifold approximation and projection) dimensionality reduction techniques (DRTs) to reduce the dimensionality of high‐dimensional environmental data. Then, we established five SDMs based on the environmental variables of dimensionality reduction for 23 real plant species and nine virtual species, and compared the predictive performance of those with the SDMs based on the selected environmental variables through Pearson's correlation coefficient (PCC). In addition, we studied the effects of DRTs, model complexity, and sample size on the predictive performance of SDMs. The predictive performance of SDMs under DRTs other than KPCA is better than using PCC. And the predictive performance of SDMs using linear DRTs is better than using nonlinear DRTs. In addition, using DRTs to deal with environmental variables has no less impact on the predictive performance of SDMs than model complexity and sample size. When the model complexity is at the complex level, PCA can improve the predictive performance of SDMs the most by 2.55% compared with PCC. At the middle level of sample size, the PCA improved the predictive performance of SDMs by 2.68% compared with the PCC. Our study demonstrates that DRTs have a significant effect on the predictive performance of SDMs. Specifically, linear DRTs, especially PCA, are more effective at improving model predictive performance under relatively complex model complexity or large sample sizes.

Nikkel, E., D. R. Clements, D. Anderson, and J. L. Williams. 2023. Regional habitat suitability for aquatic and terrestrial invasive plant species may expand or contract with climate change. Biological Invasions. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-023-03139-8

The threat of invasive species to biodiversity and ecosystem structure is exacerbated by the increasingly concerning outlook of predicted climate change and other human influences. Developing preventative management strategies for invasive plant species before they establish is crucial for effective management. To examine how climate change may impact habitat suitability, we modeled the current and future habitat suitability of two terrestrial species, Geranium lucidum and Pilosella officinarum , and two aquatic species, Butomus umbellatus and Pontederia crassipes , that are relatively new invasive plant species regionally, and are currently spreading in the Pacific Northwest (PNW, North America), an area of unique natural areas, vibrant economic activity, and increasing human population. Using North American presence records, downscaled climate variables, and human influence data, we developed an ensemble model of six algorithms to predict the potential habitat suitability under current conditions and projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5 for 2050 and 2080. One terrestrial species ( P. officinarum ) showed declining habitat suitability in future climate scenarios (contracted distribution), while the other terrestrial species ( G. lucidum ) showed increased suitability over much of the region (expanded distribution overall). The two aquatic species were predicted to have only moderately increased suitability, suggesting aquatic plant species may be less impacted by climate change. Our research provides a template for regional-scale modelling of invasive species of concern, thus assisting local land managers and practitioners to inform current and future management strategies and to prioritize limited available resources for species with expanding ranges.

Hill, A., M. F. T. Jiménez, N. Chazot, C. Cássia‐Silva, S. Faurby, L. Herrera‐Alsina, and C. D. Bacon. 2023. Apparent effect of range size and fruit colour on palm diversification may be spurious. Journal of Biogeography. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14683

Aim Fruit selection by animal dispersers with different mobility directly impacts plant geographical range size, which, in turn, may impact plant diversification. Here, we examine the interaction between fruit colour, range size and diversification rate in palms by testing two hypotheses: (1) species with fruit colours attractive to birds have larger range sizes due to high dispersal ability and (2) disperser mobility affects whether small or large range size has higher diversification, and intermediate range size is expected to lead to the highest diversification rate regardless of disperser. Location Global. Time Period Contemporary (or present). Major Taxa Studied Palms (Arecaceae). Methods Palm species were grouped based on likely animal disperser group for given fruit colours. Range sizes were estimated by constructing alpha convex hull polygons from distribution data. We examined disperser group, range size or an interaction of both as possible drivers of change in diversification rate over time in a likelihood dynamic model (Several Examined State-dependent Speciation and Extinction [SecSSE]). Models were fitted, rate estimates were retrieved and likelihoods were compared to those of appropriate null models. Results Species with fruit colours associated with mammal dispersal had larger ranges than those with colours associated with bird dispersal. The best fitting SecSSE models indicated that the examined traits were not the primary driver of the heterogeneity in diversification rates in the model. Extinction rate complexity had a marked impact on model performance and on diversification rates. Main Conclusions Two traits related to dispersal mobility, range size and fruit colour, were not identified as the main drivers of diversification in palms. Increased model extinction rate complexity led to better performing models, which indicates that net diversification should be estimated rather than speciation alone. However, increased complexity may lead to incorrect SecSSE model conclusions without careful consideration. Finally, we find palms with more mobile dispersers do not have larger range sizes, meaning other factors are more important determinants of range size.

Huang, T., J. Chen, K. E. Hummer, L. A. Alice, W. Wang, Y. He, S. Yu, et al. 2023. Phylogeny of Rubus (Rosaceae): Integrating molecular and morphological evidence into an infrageneric revision. TAXON. https://doi.org/10.1002/tax.12885

Rubus (Rosaceae), one of the most complicated angiosperm genera, contains about 863 species, and is notorious for its taxonomic difficulty. The most recent (1910–1914) global taxonomic treatment of the genus was conducted by Focke, who defined 12 subgenera. Phylogenetic results over the past 25 years suggest that Focke's subdivisions of Rubus are not monophyletic, and large‐scale taxonomic revisions are necessary. Our objective was to provide a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of the genus based on an integrative evidence approach. Morphological characters, obtained from our own investigation of living plants and examination of herbarium specimens are combined with chloroplast genomic data. Our dataset comprised 196 accessions representing 145 Rubus species (including cultivars and hybrids) and all of Focke's subgenera, including 60 endemic Chinese species. Maximum likelihood analyses inferred phylogenetic relationships. Our analyses concur with previous molecular studies, but with modifications. Our data strongly support the reclassification of several subgenera within Rubus. Our molecular analyses agree with others that only R. subg. Anoplobatus forms a monophyletic group. Other subgenera are para‐ or polyphyletic. We suggest a revised subgeneric framework to accommodate monophyletic groups. Character evolution is reconstructed, and diagnostic morphological characters for different clades are identified and discussed. Based on morphological and molecular evidence, we propose a new classification system with 10 subgenera: R. subg. Anoplobatus, R. subg. Batothamnus, R. subg. Chamaerubus, R. subg. Cylactis, R. subg. Dalibarda, R. subg. Idaeobatus, R. subg. Lineati, R. subg. Malachobatus, R. subg. Melanobatus, and R. subg. Rubus. The revised infrageneric nomenclature inferred from our analyses is provided along with synonymy and type citations. Our new taxonomic backbone is the first systematic and complete global revision of Rubus since Focke's treatment. It offers new insights into deep phylogenetic relationships of Rubus and has important theoretical and practical significance for the development and utilization of these important agronomic crops.

Jacquemyn, H., T. Pankhurst, P. S. Jones, R. Brys, and M. J. Hutchings. 2023. Biological Flora of Britain and Ireland: Liparis loeselii. Journal of Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14086

This account presents information on all aspects of the biology of Liparis loeselii (L.) Rich. (Fen Orchid) that are relevant to understanding its ecological characteristics and behaviour. The main topics are presented within the standard framework of the Biological Flora of Britain and Ireland: distribution, habitat, communities, responses to biotic factors, responses to environment, structure and physiology, phenology, floral and seed characters, herbivores and disease, history and conservation.Liparis loeselii is a small terrestrial orchid that has a circumboreal distribution and is widespread in Europe and North America. Despite its wide distribution, the species is locally rare and has declined considerably in most of its range. In Britain, the species has a disjunct distribution and is now known to occur consistently at only six sites in eastern England and three in south Wales. It is absent from Ireland. Its most characteristic habitats in Britain are inland fens and coastal dune slacks, but outside Britain it can also be found in wet meadows, marshes, forested seep springs, at lake borders or on mats of floating peat.Populations of Liparis loeselii in dune slacks tend to be short‐lived, and can rapidly increase in size or decrease and disappear as environmental conditions change. The species does not tolerate high nutrient concentrations or low pH. It is susceptible to drought, which reduces seed germination, seedling recruitment and adult survival. Heavy predation by rabbits and rodents has been observed under drought conditions.Liparis loeselii reproduces both by sexual reproduction, and by vegetative propagation through the production of pseudobulbs. Although flowers are accessible to insects, entomophilous pollination is unusual, and most sexual reproduction is the result of selfing. Fruits ripen late in the growing season (mid‐October) and the dust‐like seeds are dispersed during winter by wind and water. Germination occurs during the following growing season and is supported by a wide variety of mycorrhizal fungi.Since the late 19th century Liparis loeselii has declined considerably in Britain and elsewhere in Europe, primarily due to habitat destruction and loss, natural succession, and habitat desiccation due to drainage. As a result, the species has been listed as endangered in the Bern Convention and the European Habitat Directive (92/43/EEC), and is the focus of intensive conservation efforts in many countries. Restoration of habitat by mowing, extensive grazing, peat removal, and the creation of new habitat by dune slack formation in dune systems and peat removal in fens may prolong population persistence and promote establishment of new populations.

Walas, Ł., W. Kędziora, M. Ksepko, M. Rabska, D. Tomaszewski, P. A. Thomas, R. Wójcik, and G. Iszkuło. 2022. The future of Viscum album L. in Europe will be shaped by temperature and host availability. Scientific Reports 12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21532-6

Viscum album L. is a plant of great importance due to its influence on the host trees and, by extension, entire ecosystems. The species is also significant to humans—on the one hand, because of its use in medicine, and on the other, because of the growing threat it poses to the stability of conifer stands. Therefore, it is important to recognize the future range of three mistletoe subspecies ( Viscum album subsp. album , V. album subsp. austriacum , and V. album subsp. abietis ). Modelling of the potential range of these subspecies was performed using MAXENT software. Locations were collected from literature and databases. A total number of 3335 stands were used. Bioclimatic data for the current conditions and three future scenarios (SSP 1.26, SSP 3.70, SSP 5.85) were downloaded from the CHELSA database. The results confirmed that the temperature is the key variable on the potential range of the analysed subspecies. V. album subsp. abietis is withdrawing from its range according to all scenarios. In the case of V. album subsp. austriacum , a slight range shift is visible. Only the V. album subsp. album will expand non-directionally. The reason is most likely a very large number of host species and greater genetic variability compared to the subspecies found on conifers.

Perez‐Navarro, M. A., O. Broennimann, M. A. Esteve, G. Bagaria, A. Guisan, and F. Lloret. 2022. Comparing climatic suitability and niche distances to explain populations responses to extreme climatic events. Ecography. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.06263

Habitat suitability calculated from species distribution models (SDMs) has been used to assess population performance, but empirical studies have provided weak or inconclusive support to this approach. Novel approaches measuring population distances to niche centroid and margin in environmental space have been recently proposed to explain population performance, particularly when populations experience exceptional environmental conditions that may place them outside of the species niche. Here, we use data of co‐occurring species' decay, gathered after an extreme drought event occurring in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula which highly affected rich semiarid shrubland communities, to compare the relationship between population decay (mortality and remaining green canopy) and 1) distances between populations' location and species niche margin and centroid in the environmental space, and 2) climatic suitability estimated from frequently used SDMs (here MaxEnt) considering both the extreme climatic episode and the average reference climatic period before this. We found that both SDMs‐derived suitability and distances to species niche properly predict populations performance when considering the reference climatic period; but climatic suitability failed to predict performance considering the extreme climate period. In addition, while distance to niche margins accurately predict both mortality and remaining green canopy responses, centroid distances failed to explain mortality, suggesting that indexes containing information about the position to niche margin (inside or outside) are better to predict binary responses. We conclude that the location of populations in the environmental space is consistent with performance responses to extreme drought. Niche distances appear to be a more efficient approach than the use of climate suitability indices derived from more frequently used SDMs to explain population performance when dealing with environmental conditions that are located outside the species environmental niche. The use of this alternative metrics may be particularly useful when designing conservation measures to mitigate impacts of shifting environmental conditions.

Marcussen, T., H. E. Ballard, J. Danihelka, A. R. Flores, M. V. Nicola, and J. M. Watson. 2022. A Revised Phylogenetic Classification for Viola (Violaceae). Plants 11: 2224. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants11172224

The genus Viola (Violaceae) is among the 40–50 largest genera among angiosperms, yet its taxonomy has not been revised for nearly a century. In the most recent revision, by Wilhelm Becker in 1925, the then-known 400 species were distributed among 14 sections and numerous unranked groups. Here, we provide an updated, comprehensive classification of the genus, based on data from phylogeny, morphology, chromosome counts, and ploidy, and based on modern principles of monophyly. The revision is presented as an annotated global checklist of accepted species of Viola, an updated multigene phylogenetic network and an ITS phylogeny with denser taxon sampling, a brief summary of the taxonomic changes from Becker’s classification and their justification, a morphological binary key to the accepted subgenera, sections and subsections, and an account of each infrageneric subdivision with justifications for delimitation and rank including a description, a list of apomorphies, molecular phylogenies where possible or relevant, a distribution map, and a list of included species. We distribute the 664 species accepted by us into 2 subgenera, 31 sections, and 20 subsections. We erect one new subgenus of Viola (subg. Neoandinium, a replacement name for the illegitimate subg. Andinium), six new sections (sect. Abyssinium, sect. Himalayum, sect. Melvio, sect. Nematocaulon, sect. Spathulidium, sect. Xanthidium), and seven new subsections (subsect. Australasiaticae, subsect. Bulbosae, subsect. Clausenianae, subsect. Cleistogamae, subsect. Dispares, subsect. Formosanae, subsect. Pseudorupestres). Evolution within the genus is discussed in light of biogeography, the fossil record, morphology, and particular traits. Viola is among very few temperate and widespread genera that originated in South America. The biggest identified knowledge gaps for Viola concern the South American taxa, for which basic knowledge from phylogeny, chromosome counts, and fossil data is virtually absent. Viola has also never been subject to comprehensive anatomical study. Studies into seed anatomy and morphology are required to understand the fossil record of the genus.

Lustenhouwer, N., and I. M. Parker. 2022. Beyond tracking climate: Niche shifts during native range expansion and their implications for novel invasions. Journal of Biogeography 49: 1481–1493. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14395

Aim Although ecological niche models have been instrumental in understanding the widespread species distribution shifts under global change, rapid niche shifts limit model transferability to novel locations or time periods. Niche shifts during range expansion have been studied extensively in invasive species, but may also occur in native populations tracking climate change. We compared niche shifts during both types of range expansion in a Mediterranean annual plant to ask (i) whether the species' native range expansion tracked climate change, (ii) whether further range expansion was promoted by niche expansion, and (iii) how these results changed forecasts of two ongoing invasions in Australia and California. Location Eurasian Holarctic, California and Australia. Taxon Dittrichia graveolens (L.) Greuter (Asteraceae). Methods Niche shifts were quantified in both environmental and geographic space, using the framework of niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling and expansion (COUE) as well as maximum entropy modelling. We used the historic native distribution and climate data (1901–1930) to project the expected distribution in the present climate (1990–2019) and compared it to the observed current distribution of D. graveolens. Finally, we compared invasion forecasts based on the historic and present native niches. Results Dittrichia graveolens expanded its native range well beyond expectations based on the observed climate change, associated with a 5.5% niche expansion towards more temperate climates. In contrast, both invasions showed niche conservatism and were (still) constrained to climatic areas matching the historic native niche. Main conclusions Contrary to hypotheses in the literature, niche shifts are not necessarily more rapid in invasions than in native range expansions. We conclude that niche expansion during the process of climate tracking may cause further range expansion than expected based on climate change alone.

Cano, Á., F. W. Stauffer, T. Andermann, I. M. Liberal, A. Zizka, C. D. Bacon, H. Lorenzi, et al. 2022. Recent and local diversification of Central American understorey palms. Global Ecology and Biogeography 31: 1513–1525. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13521

Aim Central America is largely covered by hyperdiverse, yet poorly understood, rain forests. Understorey palms are diverse components of these forests, but little is known about their historical assembly. It is not clear when palms in Central America reached present diversity levels and whether most species arrived from neighbouring regions or evolved locally. We addressed these questions using the most species-rich American palm clades indicative of rain forests. We reconstructed and compared their phylogenomic and biogeographical history with the diversification of 54 other plant lineages, to gain a better understanding of the processes that shaped the assembly of Central American rain forests. Location Central America. Time period Cretaceous to present. Major taxa studied Arecaceae: Arecoideae: Bactridinae, Chamaedoreeae, Geonomateae. Methods We sampled 218 species through fieldwork and living collections. We sequenced their genomic DNA using target sequence-capture procedures. Using 12 calibration points, we reconstructed dated phylogenies under three approaches (multispecies coalescent, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference), conducted biogeographical analyses (dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis) and estimated phylogenetic diversity metrics. Results Dated phylogenies revealed intense diversification in Central America from 12 Ma. Local diversification events were four times more frequent than dispersal events, and we found strong phylogenetic clustering in relationship to Central America. Main conclusions Our results suggest that most understorey palm species that characterize the Central American rain forests today evolved locally after repeated dispersal events, mostly from South America. Understorey palms in Central American rain forests diversified primarily after closure of the Central American Seaway at c. 13 Ma, suggesting that the Great American Biotic Interchange was a major trigger for plant diversification in Central American rain forests. This recent diversification contrasts with the much earlier existence of rain forest palms in neighbouring South America since c. 58 Ma. We found similar timings of diversification in 54 other seed plant lineages, suggesting an unexpectedly recent assembly of the hyperdiverse Central American flora.