James Morrow

Species distribution models rely on species' observed geographic distributions, which reflect only subset of the true ecological niche. This inevitably leads to discrepancies between the predictions of habitat suitability (HS) and the actual ecological performance in novel environments beyond the trained range. We examined this limitation by comparing modelled HS with empirical survival rates (SRs) of three Acer species, A. davidii, A. palmatum, and A. pictum, cultivated in the UK botanic gardens. We hypothesise that ex‐situ species with greater niche overlap with native UK/European species will show higher HS, which also correspond to species' SR relative to that of local species. This HS‐SR alignment will then indicate the alignment of species' geographic range and ecological range. We first quantified niche similarity between these East Asian species and UK/Europe native Acer species at both regional and continental scales. MaxEnt models were calibrated using native occurrences with various combinations of environmental variables and model configurations, then projected onto UK regions. Species' SRs were standardised against those of native species using long‐term inventory data. Our results show that niche overlap with native species generally corresponded to predicted HS, while observed SR patterns revealed an inverse relationship. A. davidii, showing high niche overlap and high HS, exhibited the lowest SR. Contrarily, A. pictum, despite showing low niche overlap and predicting most regions unsuitable, demonstrated the highest SR, comparable to native species. This discrepancy was particularly noteworthy as A. pictum shared closer phylogenetic relationships with European species, while A. davidii was more closely related to North American species. The observed phylogenetic signal in SR patterns suggests that intrinsic traits that relate to climate tolerance may be conserved yet masked in the conventional modelling approach. This interdisciplinary approach bridges the gap between macro‐scale predictions and local‐scale individual performance, offering a new perspective on niche conservatism through a phylogenetic framework.

Lonicera japonica, an importante rsource plant, possesses significant medicinal, economic, and ecological value. To understand its response to climate change and to optimize its conservation and utilization, this study employed the Biomod2 ensemble model to predict its potential distribution under future climate scenarios and identified key environmental factors influencing its distribution. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the potential distribution of honeysuckle is primarily concentrated in low-altitude regions of central and eastern China and the Sichuan Basin. In future scenarios, the overall distribution pattern changes less, and the area of highly suitable habitats slightly decreases by 0.80%. Distribution analysis indicated a trend of northward migration towards higher latitudes. Temperature-related factors, including temperature seasonality, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and the annual mean temperature, were identified as dominant factors affecting its distribution. The Biomod2 ensemble model significantly improved the precision and accuracy of suitability predictions compared to single models, providing a scientific basis for predicting the future geographic distribution of honeysuckle and for establishing and utilizing its cultivation regions in China.

Abstract After many decades of effective control of stem rust caused by the Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici, (hereafter Pgt) the reported emergence of race TTKSK/Ug99 of Pgt in Uganda reignited concerns about epidemics worldwide because ∼90% of world wheat cultivars had no resistance to the new race. Since it was initially detected in Uganda in 1998, Ug99 variants have now been identified in thirteen countries in Africa and the Middle East. Stem rust has been a major problem in the past, and concern is increasing about the risk of return to Central and East Asia. Whilst control programs in North America and Europe relied on the use of resistant cultivars in combination with eradication of barberry (Berberis spp.), the alternate host required for the stem rust pathogen to complete its full lifecycle, the focus in East Asia was principally on the use of resistant wheat cultivars. Here, we investigate potential airborne transmission pathways for stem rust outbreaks in the Middle East to reach East Asia using an integrated modelling framework combining estimates of fungal spore deposition from an atmospheric dispersion model, environmental suitability for spore germination, and crop calendar information. We consider the role of mountain ranges in restricting transmission pathways, and we incorporate a representation of a generic barberry species into the lifecycle. We find viable transmission pathways to East Asia from the Middle East to the north via Central Asia and to the south via South Asia and that an initial infection in the Middle East could persist in East Asia for up to three years due to the presence of the alternate host. Our results indicate the need for further assessment of barberry species distributions in East Asia and appropriate methods for targeted surveillance and mitigation strategies should stem rust incidence increase in the Middle East region.

Risk analysis plays a crucial role in regulating and managing alien and invasive species but can be time-consuming and costly. Alternatively, combining invasion and impact history with species distribution models offers a cost-effective and time-efficient approach to assess invasion risk and identify species for which a comprehensive risk analysis should take precedence. We conducted such an assessment for six traded alien fern species, determining their invasion risk in countries where they are traded. Four of the species (Dicksonia antarctica, Dryopteris erythrosora, Lygodium japonicum, and Phlebodium aureum) showed limited global distributions, while Adiantum raddianum and Sphaeropteris cooperi had broader distributions. A. raddianum, however, was the only species found to pose a high invasion risk in two known trade countries – the USA and Australia – and requires a complete risk analysis to determine the appropriate regulatory responses. Dicksonia antarctica, Phlebodium aureum (for New Zealand), and Dryopteris erythrosora (for the USA) posed a medium risk of invasion due to the lack of evidence of impacts, and a complete risk analysis is thus deemed less crucial for these species in these countries. For other species, suitable environments were not predicted in the countries where they are traded, thus the risk of invasion is low, and a complete risk analysis is not required. For species in countries where suitable environments are predicted but no trade information or presence data are available, risk assessments are recommended to better determine the risk posed. Despite the relatively limited potential global distribution of the studied ferns relative to other major plant invaders (e.g., Pinus spp. and Acacia spp.), their history of invasion, documented impacts in pristine environments, and high propagule pressure from trade warrants concern, possibly necessitating legislative and regulatory measures in environmentally suitable regions.

Oxalis corniculata L. is recorded for the first time from the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. The plant species has a conspicuous stem, obcordate leaf blades, and umbellate inflorescence with yellow flowers and cylindrical or narrowly ovoid fruits. As the plant is known to spread rapidly, it may become an aggressive weed of agricultural crops in Ladakh in near future. The taxonomic description, photographs and distribution map of O. corniculata are provided to facilitate its field identification in the region.

Rubus (Rosaceae), one of the most complicated angiosperm genera, contains about 863 species, and is notorious for its taxonomic difficulty. The most recent (1910–1914) global taxonomic treatment of the genus was conducted by Focke, who defined 12 subgenera. Phylogenetic results over the past 25 years suggest that Focke's subdivisions of Rubus are not monophyletic, and large‐scale taxonomic revisions are necessary. Our objective was to provide a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of the genus based on an integrative evidence approach. Morphological characters, obtained from our own investigation of living plants and examination of herbarium specimens are combined with chloroplast genomic data. Our dataset comprised 196 accessions representing 145 Rubus species (including cultivars and hybrids) and all of Focke's subgenera, including 60 endemic Chinese species. Maximum likelihood analyses inferred phylogenetic relationships. Our analyses concur with previous molecular studies, but with modifications. Our data strongly support the reclassification of several subgenera within Rubus. Our molecular analyses agree with others that only R. subg. Anoplobatus forms a monophyletic group. Other subgenera are para‐ or polyphyletic. We suggest a revised subgeneric framework to accommodate monophyletic groups. Character evolution is reconstructed, and diagnostic morphological characters for different clades are identified and discussed. Based on morphological and molecular evidence, we propose a new classification system with 10 subgenera: R. subg. Anoplobatus, R. subg. Batothamnus, R. subg. Chamaerubus, R. subg. Cylactis, R. subg. Dalibarda, R. subg. Idaeobatus, R. subg. Lineati, R. subg. Malachobatus, R. subg. Melanobatus, and R. subg. Rubus. The revised infrageneric nomenclature inferred from our analyses is provided along with synonymy and type citations. Our new taxonomic backbone is the first systematic and complete global revision of Rubus since Focke's treatment. It offers new insights into deep phylogenetic relationships of Rubus and has important theoretical and practical significance for the development and utilization of these important agronomic crops.

The genus Viola (Violaceae) is among the 40–50 largest genera among angiosperms, yet its taxonomy has not been revised for nearly a century. In the most recent revision, by Wilhelm Becker in 1925, the then-known 400 species were distributed among 14 sections and numerous unranked groups. Here, we provide an updated, comprehensive classification of the genus, based on data from phylogeny, morphology, chromosome counts, and ploidy, and based on modern principles of monophyly. The revision is presented as an annotated global checklist of accepted species of Viola, an updated multigene phylogenetic network and an ITS phylogeny with denser taxon sampling, a brief summary of the taxonomic changes from Becker’s classification and their justification, a morphological binary key to the accepted subgenera, sections and subsections, and an account of each infrageneric subdivision with justifications for delimitation and rank including a description, a list of apomorphies, molecular phylogenies where possible or relevant, a distribution map, and a list of included species. We distribute the 664 species accepted by us into 2 subgenera, 31 sections, and 20 subsections. We erect one new subgenus of Viola (subg. Neoandinium, a replacement name for the illegitimate subg. Andinium), six new sections (sect. Abyssinium, sect. Himalayum, sect. Melvio, sect. Nematocaulon, sect. Spathulidium, sect. Xanthidium), and seven new subsections (subsect. Australasiaticae, subsect. Bulbosae, subsect. Clausenianae, subsect. Cleistogamae, subsect. Dispares, subsect. Formosanae, subsect. Pseudorupestres). Evolution within the genus is discussed in light of biogeography, the fossil record, morphology, and particular traits. Viola is among very few temperate and widespread genera that originated in South America. The biggest identified knowledge gaps for Viola concern the South American taxa, for which basic knowledge from phylogeny, chromosome counts, and fossil data is virtually absent. Viola has also never been subject to comprehensive anatomical study. Studies into seed anatomy and morphology are required to understand the fossil record of the genus.

In the 21st century, stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (Pst), is still the most devastating disease of wheat globally. Despite the critical roles of the alternate host plants, the Berberis species, in the sexual reproduction and spread of Pst, the climate change impacts on t…

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) harbors abundant and diverse plant life owing to its high habitat heterogeneity. However, the distribution pattern of biodiversity hotspots and their conservation status remain unclear. Based on 148,283 high-resolution occurrence coordinates of 13,450 seed plants, w…

Plant invasion has been proved to threaten biodiversity conservation and ecosystem maintenance at a global scale. It is a challenge to project suitable habitat distributions of invasive plant species (IPS) for invasion risk assessment at large spatial scales. Interaction outcomes between native and …