John Charles Watt

The Southern Islands Vascular Flora (SIVFLORA) dataset is a globally significant, open-access resource that compiles essential biodiversity data on vascular plants from islands across the Southern Ocean. The SIVFLORA dataset was generated through five steps: study area delimitation, compiling the dataset, validating and harmonizing taxonomy, structuring dataset attributes, and establishing file format and open access. Covering major taxonomic divisions, SIVFLORA offers a comprehensive overview of plant occurrences, comprising 14,589 records representing 886 species, 95 families, and 42 orders. This dataset documents that 58.62% of the taxa are native, 9.61% are endemic, and 31.77% are alien species. The Falkland/Malvinas Archipelago, the most species-rich, contrast sharply with less diverse islands like the South Orkney Archipelago. SIVFLORA serves as a taxonomically harmonized, interoperable resource for investigating plant diversity patterns, ecosystem responses to climate change in extreme environments, island biogeography, endemism, and the effects of anthropogenic pressures on Southern Ocean flora.

Predicting global change effects poses significant challenges due to the intricate interplay between climate change and anthropogenic stressors in shaping ecological communities and their function, such as pest outbreak risk. Termites are ecosystem engineers, yet some pest species are causing worldwide economic losses. While habitat fragmentation seems to drive pest-dominated termite communities, its interaction with climate change effect remains unknown. We test whether climate and habitat fragmentation interactively alter interspecific competition that may limit pest termite risk. Leveraging global termite co-occurrence including 280 pest species, we found that competitively superior termite species (e.g., large bodied) increased in large and continuous habitats solely at high precipitation. While competitive species suppressed pest species globally, habitat fragmentation drove pest termite risk only in humid biomes. Unfortunately, hu- mid tropics have experienced vast forest fragmentation and rainfall reduction over the past decades. These stressors, if not stopped, may drive pest termite risk, potentially via competitive release.

ABSTRACTAimFerns are globally distributed, yet the number of studies examining the historical evolution of African taxa is relatively low. Investigation of the evolution of African fern diversity is critical in order to understand patterns and processes that have global relevance (e.g., the pantropical diversity disparity [PDD] pattern). This study aims to examine when and from where a globally distributed fern lineage arrived in sub‐Saharan Africa, to obtain a better understanding of potential processes contributing to patterns of diversity across the region.LocationGlobal, sub‐Saharan Africa.TaxonAsplenium (Aspleniaceae).MethodsWe analysed five loci from 537 Asplenium taxa using a maximum likelihood (IQ‐Tree) phylogenetic framework. For age estimation, we performed penalised likelihood as implemented in treePL, and executed a Bayesian analysis using BEAST. Biogeographical analyses were carried out using BioGeoBEARS.ResultsMost dispersals into Africa occurred within the last ~55 myr, with the highest diversity of sub‐Saharan African taxa concentrated in two clades, each of which descended from an Asian ancestor. Additional dispersals to sub‐Saharan Africa can be found throughout the phylogeny. Lastly, potential cryptic species diversity exists within Asplenium as evidenced by several polyphyletic taxa.Main ConclusionsWe recover multiple dispersals of Asplenium to sub‐Saharan Africa, with two major lineages likely diversifying after arrival.

Trilocha varians is one of the major pests of Ficus spp. Based on 19 bioclimatic variables provided by the Worldclim, our study analysed the suitable distribution areas of T. varians under current and future climate changes (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for two periods (the 2050s and 2090s) using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) model. Key environmental variables affecting the geographic distribution of T. varians were also identified, and the changes in the area of suitable range under current and future climate changes were compared. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of T. varians were temperature and precipitation, comprising annual mean temperature (bio1), temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (bio4), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of driest quarter (bio17). Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable distribution area of T. varians is within the range of 92°13′E–122°08′E, 18°17′N–31°55′N. The current high, medium, and low suitable areas for T. varians predicted by the MaxEnt model are 14.00 × 104, 21.50 × 104, and 71.95 × 104 km2, of which the high suitable areas are mainly distributed in southern Guangdong, southwestern Guangxi, western Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Hainan. Under different future climatic conditions, some of the high, medium, and low suitability zones for T. varians increased and some decreased, but the mass centre did not migrate significantly. The Pearl River Basin is predicted to remain the main distribution area of T. varians.

The big-headed ant, Pheidole megacephala (Fabricius), has a widespread distribution across numerous regions globally. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has identified it as one of the 100 worst invasive alien species worldwide, given the severe ecological and economic harm it causes in invaded areas. In this study, we predicted the present and future global distribution of P. megacephala, taking into account known distribution points and bioclimatic factors. Our results indicated that temperature is the primary factor affecting the distribution of P. megacephala, with potential suitable areas currently found mainly in South America, Southern North America, Western Europe, Coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Red Seas, Southern Africa, Southern Asia, Islands in Southeast Asia, and coastal regions of Australia. The total suitable area spans 3,352.48 × 104 km2. In China, the potential suitable area for P. megacephala is 109.02 × 104 km2, representing 11.36% of China’s land area. In the future, based on different climatic conditions, the suitable area of P. megacephala generally showed a declining trend, but some newly added suitable areas showed that it had a tendency to expand to higher latitudes. Relevant agencies should implement effective measures to control P. megacephala populations to mitigate damage in invaded areas and slow down or prevent the spread of big-headed ants into noninvaded regions.

The introduction of bees for agricultural production in distinct parts of the world and poor management have led to invasion processes that affect biodiversity, significantly impacting native species. Different Bombus species with invasive potential have been recorded spreading in different regions worldwide, generating ecological and economic losses. We applied environmental niche and potential distribution analyses to four species of the genus Bombus to evaluate the similarities and differences between their native and invaded ranges. We found that B. impatiens has an extended environmental niche, going from dry environmental conditions in the native range to warmer and wetter conditions in the invaded range. Bombus ruderatus also exhibited an extended environmental niche with drier and warmer conditions in the invaded range than in its native range. Bombus subterraneus expanded its environmental niche from cooler and wetter conditions in the native range to drier and warmer conditions in the invaded range. Finally, B. terrestris showed the most significant variation in the environmental niche, extending to areas with similar and different environmental conditions from its native range. The distribution models agreed with the known distributions for the four Bombus species, presenting geographic areas known to be occupied by each species in different regions worldwide. The niche analysis indicate shifts in the niches from the native to the invaded distribution area of the bee species. Still, niche similarities were observed in the areas of greatest suitability in the potential distribution for B. ruderatus, B. subterraneus, and B. terrestris, and to a lesser degree in the same areas with B. impatiens. These species require similar environmental conditions as in their native ranges to be established in their introduced ranges. Still, they can adapt to changes in temperature and humidity, allowing them to expand their ranges into new climatic conditions.

The objective of this research was to assess the genetic diversity and phylogeography of Bombus terrestris and examine the historical events that shaped its contemporary genetic structures using the COI mitochondrial marker. Specimens of the species were collected from its distribution range alongside the Alborz Mountain range, and GenBank sequences from the Eurasian distribution range were incorporated into the dataset. The COI sequences were employed in Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood analyses to generate phylogenetic trees for the species populations and to investigate the evolutionary history of the species. Additionally, species occurrence points and climate data were utilized in Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) analyses to reconstruct the species range under past, present, and future climate conditions. The ML and BI trees yielded similar topologies, indicating extremely low genetic diversity and a homogeneous structure in the species population distribution range in Eurasia. Demographic analyses suggested that the species may have experienced a bottleneck during the last glacial maximum in Eurasia, followed by a recent expansion. The SDM analyses revealed significant fluctuations in the species range in the past and expansion under present conditions. Given the high dispersal ability of the species, the population expansion rate has surpassed the rate of developing new genetic diversity, and the estimated polymorphic sites for the species are likely relatively recent. This low level of genetic variation can also be attributed to the absence of geographical barriers and the excellent flying ability of the queen bee, leading to sustained gene flow throughout the entire continent. Despite the general correlation between larger populations and higher genetic diversity, bumblebees can expand their population size without increasing genetic diversity when residing in resourceful habitats.

Eucalyptus snout beetles are a complex of at least eight cryptic species (Curculionidae: Gonipterus scutellatus complex), native to mainland Australia and Tasmania, that defoliate Eucalyptus trees and are considered important pests. Since the 19th century, three species of the complex have been introduced to other continents. Here, we document the presence of Eucalyptus snout beetles in Ecuador. We used DNA data for species identification and unambiguously demonstrated that the Ecuadorian specimens belong to the species Gonipterus platensis, which has low genetic diversity compared with other species in the complex. We analyzed G. platensis' potential distribution in South America with ecological niche models and found several areas of high to intermediate climatic suitability, even in countries where the pest has not been registered, like Peru and Bolivia. Accurate identification of species in the G. scutellatus complex and understanding of their potential distribution are essential tools for improved management and prevention tactics.

The first comprehensive species distribution models for orchid, its fungal symbionts and pollinator are presented. To evaluate impact of global warming on these organisms three different projections and four various climate change scenarios were analysed. The niche modelling was based on presence-only records of Limodorum abortivum , two species of Russula and three insects pollinating orchid ( Anthophora affinis, Bombus terrestris, Rhodanthidium septemdentatum ). Two sets of orchid predictions were examined—the first one included only climatic data and the second one was based on climate data and data on future distribution of orchid fungal symbionts. Overall, a poleward range shift is predicted to occur as a result of climate change and apparently global warming will be favorable for L. abortivum and its potential geographical range will expand. However, due to the negative effect of global warming on fungal symbionts of L. abortivum , the actual extension of the suitable niches of the orchid will be much limited. Considering future possibility of cross-pollination, the availability of A. affinis for L. abortivum will decrease and this bee will be available in the worst case scenarios only for 21% of orchid populations. On the other hand, the overlap of orchid and the buff-tailed bumblebee will increase and as much as 86.5% of plant populations will be located within B. terrestris potential range. Also the availability of R. septemdentatum will be higher than currently observed in almost all analysed climate change projections. This study showed the importance of inclusion of ecological factors in species distribution models as the climate data itself are not enough to estimate the future distribution of plant species. Moreover, the availability of pollen vectors which is crucial for long-term survival of orchid populations should be analysed in context of climate changes.

Many studies have quantified ecological impacts of individual foundation species (FS). However, emerging data suggest that FS often co‐occur, potentially inhibiting or facilitating one another, thereby causing indirect, cascading effects on surrounding communities. Furthermore, global warming is accelerating, but little is known about how interactions between co‐occurring FS vary with temperature.Shallow aquatic sedimentary systems are often dominated by three types of FS: slower‐growing clonal angiosperms, faster‐growing solitary seaweeds, and shell‐forming filter‐ and deposit‐feeding bivalves. Here, we tested the impacts of one FS on another by analyzing manipulative interaction experiments from 148 papers with a global meta‐analysis.We calculated 1,942 (non‐independent) Hedges’ g effect sizes, from 11,652 extracted values over performance responses, such as abundances, growths or survival of FS, and their associated standard deviations and replication levels. Standard aggregation procedures generated 511 independent Hedges’ g that was classified into six types of reciprocal impacts between FS.We found that (i) seaweeds had consistent negative impacts on angiosperms across performance responses, organismal sizes, experimental approaches, and ecosystem types; (ii) angiosperms and bivalves generally had positive impacts on each other (e.g., positive effects of angiosperms on bivalves were consistent across organismal sizes and experimental approaches, but angiosperm effect on bivalve growth and bivalve effect on angiosperm abundance were not significant); (iii) bivalves positively affected seaweeds (particularly on growth responses); (iv) there were generally no net effects of seaweeds on bivalves (except for positive effect on growth) or angiosperms on seaweeds (except for positive effect on ‘other processes’); and (v) bivalve interactions with other FS were typically more positive at higher temperatures, but angiosperm‐seaweed interactions were not moderated by temperature.Synthesis: Despite variations in experimental and spatiotemporal conditions, the stronger positive interactions at higher temperatures suggest that facilitation, particularly involving bivalves, may become more important in a future warmer world. Importantly, addressing research gaps, such as the scarcity of FS interaction experiments from tropical and freshwater systems and for less studied species, as well as testing for density‐dependent effects, could better inform aquatic ecosystem conservation and restoration efforts and broaden our knowledge of FS interactions in the Anthropocene.