Nora Oleas

Endemic to the Neotropics, Monnina is the second largest genus of Polygalaceae, yet little is known about its phylogenetic history, biogeography, and morphological character evolution. To address these knowledge gaps, we conducted Bayesian and maximum likelihood (ML) analyses of nuclear ITS and plastid trnL–F regions to test the monophyly of Monnina s.l. We used this phylogenetic framework to (i) infer divergence time estimates of lineages within the genus and reconstruct their historical biogeography; (ii) reconstruct the evolution of morphological characters of putative ecological and evolutionary importance in Monnina; and (iii) test for correlations between our phylogenetic hypothesis and environmental data. Our results reveal that Monnina is monophyletic with an indehiscent, 1–2-seeded fruit as a synapomorphy for the genus. We identify six clades within Monnina based on our combined phylogenetic results: Clades A, B, and D are primarily distributed in southern and eastern South America, Clades C and E are primarily Central Andean, and Clade F is chiefly distributed in the Northern Andes and Central America. The ancestor of the Monnina stem lineage dispersed from Australia/Africa to South America during the late Eocene to early Oligocene. The divergences of major lineages within the genus began in the early Miocene. We inferred the most recent common ancestor of Monnina to be an herbaceous plant with one-seeded samaroid fruits. The origins of fleshy fruits and shrubby habits are phylogenetically correlated within Monnina, and their concerted convergent evolution may have promoted increased net diversification rates in the two most species-rich subclades of the genus.

Designing multispecies systems with suitable climatic affinity and identifying species' vulnerability under human‐driven climate change are current challenges to achieve successful adaptation of natural systems. To address this problem, we need to (1) identify groups of species with climatic similarity under climate scenarios and (2) identify areas with high conservation value under predicted climate change.To recognize species with similar climatic niche requirements that can be grouped for mixed cropping in Brazil, we employed ecological niche models (ENMs) and Spearman's ρ for overlap. We also used prioritization algorithms to map areas of high conservation value using two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) to assess mid‐term (2041–2060) and long‐term (2061–2080) climate change impacts.We identified 15 species groups with finer climatic affinities at different times depicted on hierarchical clustering dendrograms, which can be combined into agroecological agroforestry systems. Furthermore, we highlight the climatically suitable areas for these groups of species, thus providing an outlook of where different species will need to be planted over time to be conserved. In addition, we observed that climate change is predicted to modify the spatial association of these groups under different future climate scenarios, causing a mean negative change in species climatic similarity of 9.5% to 13.7% under SSP2‐4.5 scenario and 9.5% to 10.5% under SSP5‐8.5, for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080, respectively.Synthesis and applications. Our findings provide a framework for agroforestry conservation. The groups of species with finer climatic affinities identified and the climatically suitable areas can be combined into agroecological productive systems, and provide an outlook of where different species may be planted over time. In addition, the conservation priority zones displaying high climate stability for each species individually and all at once can be incorporated into Brazil's conservation plans by policymakers to prioritize specific sites. Lastly, we urge policymakers, conservation organizations and donors to promote interventions involving farmers and local communities, since the species' evaluated have proven to maintain landscapes with productive forest fragments and can be conserved in different Brazilian ecosystems.

The debated vegetation response to climate change can be investigated through palynological fossil records from past extreme climate conditions. In this context, the early Eocene (53.3 to 41.2 million years ago (Ma)) is often referred to as a model for a greenhouse Earth. In the Xining Basin, situated on the North-eastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP), this time interval is represented by an extensive and well-dated sedimentary sequence of evaporites and red mudstones. Here we focus on the palynological record of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma) and study the fossil gymnosperm pollen composition in these sediments. In addition, we also investigate the nearest living relatives (NLR) or botanical affinity of these genera and the paleobiogeographic implications of their occurrence in the Eocene of the NETP. To reach our objective, we complemented transmitted light microscopy with laser scanning- and electron microscopy techniques, to produce high-resolution images, and illustrate the morphological variation within fossil and extant gymnosperm pollen. Furthermore, a morphometric analysis was carried out to investigate the infra- and intrageneric variation of these and related taxa. To place the data in context we produced paleobiogeographic maps for Phyllocladidites and for other Podocarpaceae, based on data from a global fossil pollen data base, and compare these with modern records from GBIF. We also assessed the climatic envelope of the NLR. Our analyses confirm the presence of Phyllocladidites (NLR Phyllocladus, Podocarpaceae) and Podocarpidites (NLR Podocarpus, Podocarpaceae) in the EECO deposits in the Xining Basin. In addition, a comparative study based on literature suggests that Parcisporites is likely a younger synonym of Phyllocladidites. Our findings further suggest that the Phyllocladidites specimens are derived from a lineage that was much more diverse than previously thought, and which had a much larger biogeographical distribution during the EECO than at present. Based on the climatic envelope of the NLR, we suggest that the paleoclimatic conditions in the Xining Basin were warmer and more humid during the EECO. We conclude that phylloclade-type conifers typical of the southern-temperate podocarp forests, had a northward geographical expansion during the EECO, followed by extirpation.

A diverse group of invasive grasses from tropical and subtropical Africa and Asia has spread throughout the Neotropics over the last decades. Despite their strong ecological impact, current and future distribution patterns of these grasses in the region according to climate change is poorly investigated. We chose ten high potential invasive grass species and used ecological niche modeling to project their geographic distribution within the Neotropics under four climate change scenarios (current, SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 for 2100). Current climatically suitable areas for these invasive species were estimated to account for 51.3% of the Neotropics. Projections of future climatically suitable areas ranged between 47.0% and 57.6%, depending on the climate scenario. Range retractions are projected for Melinis repens and Urochloa decumbens regardless of the SSP scenario, while Arundo donax, Hyparrhenia rufa and Melinis minutiflora are expected to expand their range in all SSP scenarios. Currently, these ten invasive species have suitable areas that greatly overlap in dry regions of the Neotropics, mainly in the savannas of Central Brazil and Central America. However, a reduction in species overlap and a geographical expansion towards wetter regions is expected under the SSP1 and SSP3 scenarios, and towards drier regions under the SSP5 scenario.

Paleoclimate reconstructions can provide a window into the environmental conditions in Earth history when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than today. In the eastern USA, paleoclimate reconstructions are sparse, because terrestrial sedimentary deposits are rare. Despite this, the eastern USA has the largest population and population density in North America, and understanding the effects of current and future climate change is of vital importance. Here, we provide terrestrial paleoclimate reconstructions of the eastern USA from Miocene fossil floras. Additionally, we compare proxy paleoclimate reconstructions from the warmest period in the Miocene, the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO), to those of an MCO Earth System Model. Reconstructed Miocene temperatures and precipitation north of 35°N are higher than modern. In contrast, south of 35°N, temperatures and precipitation are similar to today, suggesting a poleward amplification effect in eastern North America. Reconstructed Miocene rainfall seasonality was predominantly higher than modern, regardless of latitude, indicating greater variability in intra-annual moisture transport. Reconstructed climates are almost uniformly in the temperate seasonal forest biome, but heterogeneity of specific forest types is evident. Reconstructed Miocene terrestrial temperatures from the eastern USA are lower than modeled temperatures and coeval Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, reconstructed rainfall is consistent with modeled rainfall. Our results show that during the Miocene, climate was most different from modern in the northeastern states, and may suggest a drastic reduction in the meridional temperature gradient along the North American east coast compared to today.

Outside humans, true agriculture was previously thought to be restricted to social insects farming fungus. However, obligate farming of plants by ants was recently discovered in Fiji, prompting a re-examination of plant cultivation by ants. Here, we generate a database of plant cultivation by ants, identify three main types, and show that these interactions evolved primarily for shelter rather than food. We find that plant cultivation evolved at least 65 times independently for crops (~200 plant species), and 15 times in farmer lineages (~37 ant taxa) in the Neotropics and Asia/Australasia. Because of their high evolutionary replication, and variation in partner dependence, these systems are powerful models to unveil the steps in the evolution and ecology of insect agriculture.

Peru is a megadiverse country in neotropical flora and is home to an important genus of plants called Cinchona and commonly all its individual species are called Cinchona Tree (Cinchona spp.), which represents the national tree for this nation. This country has 18 species, a group of these species are listed as vulnerable, endangered, and their population trend is currently unknown. This genus is at risk of extinction due to overexploitation for its medicinal, constructive and food uses. The IUCN also mentions that increased species assessments and records will help make the IUCN Red List a “barometer of life”. Based on the fact that understanding the effects of environmental change on ecosystems requires the identification of historical and current baselines, which can act as reference conditions, this research generated georeferenced global historical maps of Cinchona spp. and then determined the appropriate sites based on environmental variables using the Maxent software and established the probabilities of occurrence of this genus in Peru to establish priority areas for its conservation and restoration. Four maps were obtained, one for each centennial, from 1737 to the present, with 10,860 occurrences of Cinchona. In the MaxEnt modeling, 10.30 % (13 3172.56 km2) and 19.20 % (24 7371.32 km2) of Peru's surface area had high (> 0.6) and moderate (0.4 - 0.6) probabilities, respectively, of hosting Cinchona. Only 7.6 % (17 305.32 km2) and 22.0 % (50 153.73 km2) of the areas with high and moderate distribution potential, respectively, were covered by natural protected areas. Likewise, 11.90 % (21 738.75 km2) and 33.20 % (60 789.17 km2) of the high and moderate probability lands, respectively, correspond to degraded areas (DAs) and, therefore, are considered a priority for restoration with Cinchona spp. The results may stimulate the rethinking of decision making for the National Action Plan for Reforestation with Species of the Genus Cinchona and other plans or tools for Cinchona conservation in Peru.

Western Ecuador harbours high plant diversity and endemism. The region of Manabí has known intense deforestation over the last decades, but lowland rain forests persist in a network of small forest fragment patches. Here, we describe two new magnoliid tree species from a small privately owned forest fragment known as La Esperanza reserve, in the El Carmen canton (Manabí): Aniba ecuadorica (Lauraceae) and Guatteria esperanzae (Annonaceae). For both species a detailed morphological description, a preliminary conservation status following IUCN criteria, distribution maps and high quality photographs are provided. This represents the second species of Aniba known to occur in western Ecuador, while there are 14 species of Guatteria documented for Ecuador west of the Andes. Aniba ecuadorica is only known from two localities and has a preliminary IUCN conservation status of Critically Endangered, while Guatteria esperanzae is known from six localities and is suggested to be Endangered. Finally, we provide a quick overview of Guatteria species in western Ecuador with a key to the species in the region. The description of these two new tree species underlines the important need of prospection and conservation of the remnant forests in the Manabí region of western Ecuador. We also stress the importance of privately owned forest fragments for biodiversity conservation.

Melinis repens subsp. repens is an annual herb native to Africa and southwestern Asia. In 2008, this species was detected growing in road verges and showing a reduced occupancy area of 6 km2 in a natural area of the southern Iberian Peninsula in the province of Malaga (Andalusia, Spain). The rest of the existing European records of this species comes from the Czech Republic, the Italian Peninsula, and Great Britain and can be considered casual. Furthermore, this species has become naturalised in Sardinia. The aim of this work is to study the invasion status, habitats, potential impacts, invasive behaviour, and pathways of introduction of Melinis repens subsp. repens in the southern Iberian Peninsula (Spain) to contribute to the control of this species. This species was most probably introduced into Europe for ornamental, fodder, or slope stabilization purposes. Our field work revealed this species has become naturalised in several habitats of Malaga and Granada provinces (Andalusia) occupying an area of 263 km2 in 2021. It behaves as a pioneer species that colonizes disturbed road margins and occurs in the same habitat as Cenchrus setaceus. Melinis repens subsp. repens can become dominant in natural EUNIS habitats and can also occupy cultivated areas. Because of the high occupancy area detected, and because the species has been assigned to the European Union List of Invasive Alien Plants based on the EPPO prioritization process, this plant should be considered the object of a control programme and its use should be legally prohibited in Spain, and more largely in European Mediterranean areas.

The early Eocene (∼56‐48 million years ago) is characterised by high CO2 estimates (1200‐2500 ppmv) and elevated global temperatures (∼10 to 16°C higher than modern). However, the response of the hydrological cycle during the early Eocene is poorly constrained, especially in regions with sparse data coverage (e.g. Africa). Here we present a study of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, as simulated by an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art climate models in the Deep‐time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). A comparison between the DeepMIP pre‐industrial simulations and modern observations suggests that model biases are model‐ and geographically dependent, however these biases are reduced in the model ensemble mean. A comparison between the Eocene simulations and the pre‐industrial suggests that there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO2 increases. The results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa. There is an increase in precipitation over equatorial and West Africa and associated drying over northern Africa as CO2 rises. There are also important dynamical changes, with evidence that anticyclonic low‐level circulation is replaced by increased south‐westerly flow at high CO2 levels. Lastly, a model‐data comparison using newly‐compiled quantitative climate estimates from palaeobotanical proxy data suggests a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO2.