Bjørn Petter Løfall

Iris pseudacorus is both a prized ornamental and an invasive aquatic plant that tends to grow dense monospecific stands, displacing the local vegetation and altering the hydrology of freshwater ecosystems. Originally from Europe, this species has historically invaded North America, China and Japan, and more recently spread through Argentina, South Africa and Australasia, where it is now a target for biological control. Field surveys within its native range have led to the selection of three candidate biocontrol agents. Prioritizing the best candidates for different regions constitutes a critical step, which could save significant time and resources before further cost-intensive experimental studies are conducted. Climate change is seldom taken into consideration in the prioritization process. In this regard, climatic suitability can be used to model the potential distributions of weeds and their candidate agents, both in space and time, thus allowing to identify areas at risk of invasion and predict where agents will be able to establish long-term. Accordingly, the objectives of this work were (i) to predict I. pseudacorus invasions and range shifts in the context of climate change; (ii) to identify wetland areas most at risk of invasion under present and future climatic conditions; and (iii) to prioritize the best suite of candidate biocontrol agents for different invaded ranges, worldwide. To do so, we modelled the present and future (2040–2060) climatic suitability of I. pseudacorus and its candidate agents using the software MaxEnt. Our results highlight a clear distinction between predictions for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In North America and eastern Asia, the area climatically suitable for I. pseudacorus is expected to increase and shift northwards. As for its biocontrol agents, very low suitability is predicted across these regions, further decreasing under future climatic conditions. On the other hand, climatically suitable areas for the plant in South America, southern Africa and Australasia are predicted, on average, to reduce in response to climate change. A decrease in climatic suitability is also expected for its candidate biocontrol agents which, however, would still maintain a significant range overlap with their host. These results can be used to prioritize areas most at risk of invasion and identify which combination of candidates could potentially provide the best level of control across different invaded ranges.

Background Poa annua (annual bluegrass) is an allotetraploid turfgrass, an agronomically significant weed, and one of the most widely dispersed plant species on earth. Here, we report the chromosome-scale genome assemblies of P. annua’s diploid progenitors, P. infirma and P. supina, and use multi-omic analyses spanning all three species to better understand P. annua’s evolutionary novelty. Results We find that the diploids diverged from their common ancestor 5.5 – 6.3 million years ago and hybridized to form P. annua  ≤ 50,000 years ago. The diploid genomes are similar in chromosome structure and most notably distinguished by the divergent evolutionary histories of their transposable elements, leading to a 1.7 × difference in genome size. In allotetraploid P. annua, we find biased movement of retrotransposons from the larger (A) subgenome to the smaller (B) subgenome. We show that P. annua’s B subgenome is preferentially accumulating genes and that its genes are more highly expressed. Whole-genome resequencing of several additional P. annua accessions revealed large-scale chromosomal rearrangements characterized by extensive TE-downsizing and evidence to support the Genome Balance Hypothesis. Conclusions The divergent evolutions of the diploid progenitors played a central role in conferring onto P. annua its remarkable phenotypic plasticity. We find that plant genes (guided by selection and drift) and transposable elements (mostly guided by host immunity) each respond to polyploidy in unique ways and that P. annua uses whole-genome duplication to purge highly parasitized heterochromatic sequences. The findings and genomic resources presented here will enable the development of homoeolog-specific markers for accelerated weed science and turfgrass breeding .

Low temperature constitutes one of the main barriers to plant distributions, confining many clades to their ancestrally tropical biome. However, recent evidence suggests that transitions from tropical to temperate biomes may be more frequent than previously thought. Here, we study the evolution of cold and frost tolerance in the globally distributed and highly stress-tolerant Salicornieae (Salicornioideae, Amaranthaceae s.l.). We first generate a phylogenetic tree comprising almost all known species (85-90%), using newly generated (n = 106) and published nuclear-ribosomal and plastid sequences. Next, we use geographical occurrence data to document in which clades and geographical regions cold-tolerant species occur and reconstruct how cold tolerance evolved. Finally, we test for correlated evolution between frost tolerance and the annual life form. We find that frost tolerance has evolved independently in up to four Northern Hemisphere lineages but that annuals are no more likely to evolve frost tolerance than perennials, indicating the presence of different strategies for adapting to cold environments. Our findings add to mounting evidence for multiple independent out-of-the-tropics transitions among close relatives of flowering plants and raise new questions about the ecological and physiological mechanism(s) of adaptation to low temperatures in Salicornieae.

The benefits of early detection of biological invasions are widely recognized, especially for protected areas (PAs). However, research on incipient invasive plant species is scarce compared to species with a recognized history of invasion. Here, we characterized the invasion status of the non-native conifer Juniperus communis in PAs and interface areas of Andean Patagonia, Argentina. We mapped its distribution and described both the invasion and the environments this species inhabits through field studies, a literature review, and a citizen science initiative. We also modeled the species’ potential distribution by comparing the climatic characteristics of its native range with those of the introduced ranges studied. The results show that J. communis is now widely distributed in the region, occurring naturally in diverse habitats, and frequently within and close to PAs. This species can be considered an incipient invader with a high potential for expansion in its regional distribution range, largely due to its high reproductive potential and the high habitat suitability of this environment. Early detection of a plant invasion affords a valuable opportunity to inform citizens of the potential risks to high conservation value ecosystems before the invader is perceived as a natural component of the landscape.

We estimated climate niche shifts and threat levels under various climate change scenarios for Vaccinium myrtillus L. and V. vitis-idaea L. We developed the MaxEnt species distribution models, and predicted future climatic optima for climate change scenarios for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. The precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping the climatic niches of the studied species. We predicted the largest shifts in climate niches from the present to the 2040–2060 period, with the most pessimistic scenario predicting significant range losses for both species, mainly in Western Europe. Under the most optimistic SSP126 scenario, both species will lose 39 % of their climatic niche for both periods. In the worst-case scenario (SSP585) for 2061–2080, climatic niche contraction will cover 47 % and 39 % of the current climatic niche for V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea, respectively. The predicted changes in species distribution could have far-reaching consequences for temperate and boreal forests due to their crucial biocenotic role in forest ecosystems, high potential for carbon sequestration, and prevention of soil erosion. Furthermore, the changes would likely affect the economic potential regarding fruit production and culturally relevant uses of different parts of the plants, mainly fruits.

Two main types of species distribution models are used to project species range shifts in future climatic conditions: correlative and process‐based models. Although there is some continuity between these two types of models, they are fundamentally different in their hypotheses (statistical relationships vs. mechanistic relationships) and their calibration methods (SDMs tend to be occurrence data driven while PBMs tend to be prior driven).One of the limitations to the use of process‐based models is the difficulty to parameterize them for a large number of species compared to correlative SDMs. We investigated the feasibility of using an evolutionary algorithm (called covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy, CMA‐ES) to calibrate process‐based models using species distribution data. This method is well established in some fields (robotics, aerodynamics, etc.), but has never been used, to our knowledge, in ecology, despite its ability to deal with very large space dimensions. Using tree species occurrence data across Europe, we adapted the CMA‐ES algorithm to find appropriate values of model parameters. We estimated simultaneously 27–77 parameters of two process‐based models simulating forest tree's ecophysiology for three species with varying range sizes and geographical distributions.CMA‐ES provided parameter estimates leading to better prediction of species distribution than parameter estimates based on expert knowledge. Our results also revealed that some model parameters and processes were strongly dependent, and different parameter combinations could therefore lead to high model accuracy.We conclude that CMA‐ES is an efficient state‐of‐the‐art method to calibrate process‐based models with a large number of parameters using species occurrence data. Inverse modelling using CMA‐ES is a powerful method to calibrate process‐based parameters which can hardly be measured. However, the method does not warranty that parameter estimates are correct because of several sources of bias, similarly to correlative models, and expert knowledge is required to validate results.

Many studies have quantified ecological impacts of individual foundation species (FS). However, emerging data suggest that FS often co‐occur, potentially inhibiting or facilitating one another, thereby causing indirect, cascading effects on surrounding communities. Furthermore, global warming is accelerating, but little is known about how interactions between co‐occurring FS vary with temperature.Shallow aquatic sedimentary systems are often dominated by three types of FS: slower‐growing clonal angiosperms, faster‐growing solitary seaweeds, and shell‐forming filter‐ and deposit‐feeding bivalves. Here, we tested the impacts of one FS on another by analyzing manipulative interaction experiments from 148 papers with a global meta‐analysis.We calculated 1,942 (non‐independent) Hedges’ g effect sizes, from 11,652 extracted values over performance responses, such as abundances, growths or survival of FS, and their associated standard deviations and replication levels. Standard aggregation procedures generated 511 independent Hedges’ g that was classified into six types of reciprocal impacts between FS.We found that (i) seaweeds had consistent negative impacts on angiosperms across performance responses, organismal sizes, experimental approaches, and ecosystem types; (ii) angiosperms and bivalves generally had positive impacts on each other (e.g., positive effects of angiosperms on bivalves were consistent across organismal sizes and experimental approaches, but angiosperm effect on bivalve growth and bivalve effect on angiosperm abundance were not significant); (iii) bivalves positively affected seaweeds (particularly on growth responses); (iv) there were generally no net effects of seaweeds on bivalves (except for positive effect on growth) or angiosperms on seaweeds (except for positive effect on ‘other processes’); and (v) bivalve interactions with other FS were typically more positive at higher temperatures, but angiosperm‐seaweed interactions were not moderated by temperature.Synthesis: Despite variations in experimental and spatiotemporal conditions, the stronger positive interactions at higher temperatures suggest that facilitation, particularly involving bivalves, may become more important in a future warmer world. Importantly, addressing research gaps, such as the scarcity of FS interaction experiments from tropical and freshwater systems and for less studied species, as well as testing for density‐dependent effects, could better inform aquatic ecosystem conservation and restoration efforts and broaden our knowledge of FS interactions in the Anthropocene.

Biological invasions are a major component of global environmental change with severe ecological and economic consequences. Since eradicating biological invaders is costly and even futile in many cases, predicting the areas under risk to take preventive measures is crucial. Impatiens glandulifera is a very aggressive and prolific invasive species and has been expanding its invasive range all across the Northern hemisphere, primarily in Europe. Although it is currently spread in the east and west of North America (in Canada and USA), studies on its fate under climate change are quite limited compared to the vast literature in Europe. Hybrid models, which integrate multiple modeling approaches, are promising tools for making projections to identify the areas under invasion risk. We developed a hybrid and spatially explicit framework by utilizing MaxEnt, one of the most preferred species distribution modeling (SDM) methods, and we developed an agent-based model (ABM) with the statistical language R. We projected the I. glandulifera invasion in North America, for the 2020–2050 period, under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Our results showed a predominant northward progression of the invasive range alongside an aggressive expansion in both currently invaded areas and interior regions. Our projections will provide valuable insights for risk assessment before the potentially irreversible outcomes emerge, considering the severity of the current state of the invasion in Europe.

Invasive alien species are among the main global drivers of biodiversity loss posing major challenges to nature conservation and to managers of protected areas.The present study applied a methodological framework that combined invasive Species Distribution Models, based on propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors for 14 invasive alien plants of Union concern in Italy, with the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation analysis aiming to map, evaluate and analyse the risk of plant invasions across the country, inside and outside the network of protected areas.Using a hierarchical invasive Species Distribution Model, we explored the combined effect of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on shaping invasive alien plant occurrence across three biogeographic regions (Alpine, Continental, and Mediterranean) and realms (terrestrial and aquatic) in Italy. We disentangled the role of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on invasive alien plant distribution and projected invasion risk maps. We compared the risk posed by invasive alien plants inside and outside protected areas.Invasive alien plant distribution varied across biogeographic regions and realms and unevenly threatens protected areas. As an alien's occurrence and risk on a national scale are linked with abiotic factors followed by propagule pressure, their local distribution in protected areas is shaped by propagule pressure and biotic filters. The proposed modelling framework for the assessment of the risk posed by invasive alien plants across spatial scales and under different protection regimes represents an attempt to fill the gap between theory and practice in conservation planning helping to identify scale, site, and species-specific priorities of management, monitoring and control actions. Based on solid theory and on free geographic information, it has great potential for application to wider networks of protected areas in the world and to any invasive alien plant, aiding improved management strategies claimed by the environmental legislation and national and global strategies.

Rubus (Rosaceae), one of the most complicated angiosperm genera, contains about 863 species, and is notorious for its taxonomic difficulty. The most recent (1910–1914) global taxonomic treatment of the genus was conducted by Focke, who defined 12 subgenera. Phylogenetic results over the past 25 years suggest that Focke's subdivisions of Rubus are not monophyletic, and large‐scale taxonomic revisions are necessary. Our objective was to provide a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of the genus based on an integrative evidence approach. Morphological characters, obtained from our own investigation of living plants and examination of herbarium specimens are combined with chloroplast genomic data. Our dataset comprised 196 accessions representing 145 Rubus species (including cultivars and hybrids) and all of Focke's subgenera, including 60 endemic Chinese species. Maximum likelihood analyses inferred phylogenetic relationships. Our analyses concur with previous molecular studies, but with modifications. Our data strongly support the reclassification of several subgenera within Rubus. Our molecular analyses agree with others that only R. subg. Anoplobatus forms a monophyletic group. Other subgenera are para‐ or polyphyletic. We suggest a revised subgeneric framework to accommodate monophyletic groups. Character evolution is reconstructed, and diagnostic morphological characters for different clades are identified and discussed. Based on morphological and molecular evidence, we propose a new classification system with 10 subgenera: R. subg. Anoplobatus, R. subg. Batothamnus, R. subg. Chamaerubus, R. subg. Cylactis, R. subg. Dalibarda, R. subg. Idaeobatus, R. subg. Lineati, R. subg. Malachobatus, R. subg. Melanobatus, and R. subg. Rubus. The revised infrageneric nomenclature inferred from our analyses is provided along with synonymy and type citations. Our new taxonomic backbone is the first systematic and complete global revision of Rubus since Focke's treatment. It offers new insights into deep phylogenetic relationships of Rubus and has important theoretical and practical significance for the development and utilization of these important agronomic crops.